Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex

Tropical Depression Alex emerged over the Bay of Campeche Sunday evening June 27, 2010, and quickly regained tropical storm status Sunday night.

At 11:00AM EDT on Monday, June 28, 2010 the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located about 85 miles west of the western Yucatan coast, which is also approximately 620 miles south-southwest of the Deepwater Horizon well head location and about 750 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60mph.

Conditions ahead of the storm (light wind shear, a moist air mass and sea surface temperatures between 86 and 88 degrees) are expected to remain favorable for more intensification and Alex could reach hurricane strength by sunrise Tuesday, June 29, 2010.

The National Hurricane Center is also forecasting that Alex could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds near 100mph by Wednesday morning June 30, 2010, and continuing at that intensity until landfall.

This intensity forecast is higher than many of the computer models, which keep Alex a tropical storm or weak hurricane.

However, with favorable conditions and the fact that Alex continues to intensify with every advisory, there is greater than a 50% chance that Alex will make it to Category 1 hurricane intensity and about a 22% chance of becoming a Category 2 hurricane with the next 3 days.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will resume flights into the system and continue to monitor the strength of Alex until landfall.

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