Latest briefing on Tropical Storm Karen

                         Tropical Storm Karen October 5, 2013, 5:15AM Update

Summary:

• At 5AM, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 180 Miles south-southwest of the Mouth of Mississippi River which is approximately 339 miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
• Karen remains extremely disorganized with the last remaining bits of storms residing far to the east of the center. As a result, maximum sustained winds have weakened to about 40 mph.
• Because this system is considerably weak and disorganized, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast; and there are a few scenarios which could happen. A few models are predicting that Karen could have a small window to strengthen slightly. Other models suggest that Karen could lose its tropical characteristics and weaken into a remnant low.
• Either way, the track of this system will depend on the timing of a frontal boundary which is expected to descend into our area. Models remain uncertain, and solutions suggest a possible landfall anywhere between Gulf County in Florida and New Orleans, but the majority of solutions place a landfall near Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida.
• The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that this system will continue to drift north-northwestward before it makes a hard northeast turn once it gets picked up by a frontal boundary. Once it gets picked up by the frontal boundary, it is expected to make a second landfall near Pensacola, Florida on Sunday evening before leaving the Florida Panhandle early Monday morning.
• A hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance flight is currently investigating this system and another flight is scheduled for tomorrow.

Florida Outlook:

• The timing of this system is highly uncertain but impacts could be felt as early Sunday afternoon.
• A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida through the Mouth of the Pearl River in Louisiana. This includes the counties of: Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, Bay, and Gulf.
• This means that gusty winds of up to 60 mph could begin to impact portions of Northwest Florida. There is currently a 20% chance for tropical storm force winds reaching the Panhandle.
• Widespread heavy rainfall of between 1 and 3 inches is possible across the Panhandle with locally heavier amounts of up to 6 inches.
• As a result, river, flash, and coastal flooding will still be a concern, but these risks are starting to go down. Rivers to watch include the Shoal, Choctawhatchee, Black Water, and the Yellow Rivers.
• Preliminary storm surge estimates will be between 2 and 4 feet with the highest amounts occurring near Cedar Key. These estimates may be a little high.
• The risk for tornadoes will begin to increase on Sunday in conjunction of the northeast side of the storm hitting the Panhandle and Big Bend. These tornadoes will generally be isolated and confined to rain bands passing over an area.
• It is important to remember that there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and that the impacts remain extremely uncertain at this time.
• A high risk of rip currents will be possible across the Panhandle and Gulf Coasts lingering through Monday.

Tropical Storm Karen October 4, 2013, 5:15PM Update

• Official forecast continues to show storm drifting NNW at 6 knots.
• Current reports show the storm is still unorganized with most models showing storm continuing as a Tropical Storm rather than a Hurricane.
• Expected landfall of Sunday to Monday with a 2-3 feet storm surge.
• Possible severe weather with tornados and high winds could occur.
• Eastward turn expected to occur late Saturday into Sunday.
• Franklin County Emergency Management Operations Center remains at a level 3 of monitoring at this time.
• NO Local State of Emergency has been requested.

Tropical Storm Karen October 4, 2013, 5:00PM Update

• At 5PM, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 235 Miles south-southwest of the Mouth of Mississippi River which is approximately 366 miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
• Maximum sustained remain at 50 mph with higher gusts. Karen remains highly disorganized with most of its shower and storm activity displaced to the east of the center. This is likely to continue with environmental conditions promoting strong wind shear and dry air near the center.
• Beyond that time, some additional strengthening will be possible on Saturday night and Sunday before it makes landfall.
• The tack of this system will depend on the timing of a frontal boundary which is expected to descend into our area. Models remain uncertain, and solutions suggest a possible landfall anywhere between Gulf County in Florida and New Orleans, but the majority of solutions place a landfall near Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida.
• The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that this system will continue to drift north-northwestward before it makes a hard northeast turn once it gets picked up by a frontal boundary. Once it gets picked up by the frontal boundary, it is expected to make a second landfall near Pensacola, Florida on Sunday afternoon before leaving the Florida Panhandle on Sunday evening.
• A hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance flight is currently investigating this system and another flight is scheduled for tomorrow.

Florida Outlook:

• The timing of this system is highly uncertain but impacts could be felt as early Sunday morning.
• The Hurricane Watch from Destin, Florida westward through Louisiana has been canceled and replaced with a tropical storm watch.
• A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida through the Mouth of the Pearl River in Louisiana. This includes the counties of: Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, Bay, and Gulf.
• This means that gusty winds of up to 60 mph could begin to impact portions of Northwest Florida. There is currently a 30% chance for tropical storm force winds reaching the Panhandle.
• Widespread heavy rainfall of between 3 and 6 inches is possible across the Panhandle with locally heavier amounts of up to 10 inches.
• As a result, river, flash, and coastal flooding will be a concern. Rivers to watch include the Shoal, Choctawhatchee, Black Water, and the Yellow Rivers.
• Preliminary storm surge estimates will be between 2 and 6 feet with the highest amounts occurring in the Big Bend.
• The risk for tornadoes will begin to increase on Sunday in conjunction of the northeast side of the storm hitting the Panhandle and Big Bend. These tornadoes will generally be isolated and confined to rain bands passing over an area.
• It is important to remember that there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and that the impacts remain extremely uncertain at this time.
• A high risk of rip currents will be possible across the Panhandle Coasts beginning today and lingering this weekend.

Tropical Storm Karen October 4, 2013, 12:41PM Update

• Karen remains to be disorganized at this time.
• Winds are still 60 mph sustained at the center of this storm.
• Landfall is expected to be between Orange Beach & Pensacola on Sunday with the current path and expected to be near hurricane strength.
• With the current path we are expected to experience minor to moderate wind damage.
• Showers & thunderstorms with coastal flooding at a low of 3 feet or under with a storm surge of 2-3 feet.
• Sunday the winds are expected to be at 20 mph with a 70% chance of rain.
• The Franklin County Emergency Management Operations Center remains at a level 3 of monitoring at this time. Sandbags are ready but not available to the public at this time, if the need occurs, Emergency Management Operations Center will notify every one of locations to pick up.
• This system continues to show uncertainty at this time, please continue to monitor local radio, NOAA and Emergency Management Operations Center for updates.
• No evacuation is planned for this time.
• NO Local State of Emergency has been requested at this time.

Tropical Storm Karen October 4, 2013, 11:00AM Update

• Tropical Storm Karen continues to move north northwest towards the northern Gulf Coast.
• A general northerly motion should continue through the next 12 to 24 hours, with a curve to the northeast on Saturday. The eventual landfall location remains quite uncertain. Monitor the forecast closely! 
• Karen is forecast to be near hurricane strength as it approaches the coast.
• A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Destin, FL to Indian Pass, FL., this includes portions of Walton, Bay, and Gulf Counties. 

Possible Impacts: 

• Strong winds possible near and to the east of the track of the center of the storm.
• Above normal tides with storm surge along the Panhandle and Big Bend coast, including Apalachee Bay. 
• High surf with life-threatening rip currents.
• Heavy rainfall possible, particularly in training feeder bands to the east of the center of Karen. 

Timing: Impacts this weekend, mainly Saturday Night and Sunday.