NOAA nearshore surface oil forecast for July 6th

This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Sunday, July 4 PM. Currents were obtained from several models (NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Saturday-Sunday satellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS) and Sunday over flights. The leading edge may contain tar balls that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.

Winds are forecast to shift tonight to become more southerly, then remain from the south and east through next week with speeds of 10-18 kts. Due to the northwestward movement of the slick over the past several days, the coastlines of MS, AL, and the FL panhandle west of Pensacola continue to be threatened by shoreline contacts. For Louisiana, models show winds and currents moving oil from the source region west around the Delta and then to the north, with new shoreline oiling in the area between Barataria Bay and Caillou Bay. Further west, only scattered sheens have been observed on recent over flights; however strong westward currents will continue to transport these sheens to the west.