Oil Spill Trajectory Forecast

The latest oil spill trajectory forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Monday, May 10 AM. Currents were obtained from the NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, Texas A&M/TGLO, and NAVO/NRL models, and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Monday morning satellite imagery and analysis provided by NOAA/NESDIS and over flight observations. The leading edge may contain tar balls that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.

Winds were forecasted to become SE yesterday May 11, at 10-15 kts and persist throughout the week. These moderately strong onshore winds (up to 15-20 kts) have the potential to move new oil onshore. The Mississippi Delta, Breton Sound, the Chandeleur Islands, and areas directly north have a potential for shoreline contacts throughout the forecast period. West of the Mississippi Delta, the shoreline west of Barataria Bay to Isles Dernieres were threatened on Monday. With continued winds from the SE, potential oil contacts were expected to reach as far west as Oyster Bayou yesterday and Atchafalaya Bay by late today, May 12.